Sensitivity of multi-gas climate policy to emission metrics     

Steven J. Smith  Joseph Karas  Jae Edmonds  Jiyong Eom  Andrew Mizrahi 《Climatic change》2013,117(4):663-675

The Global Warming Potential (GWP) index is currently used to create CO₂-equivalent emission totals for multi-gas greenhouse targets. While many alternatives have been proposed, it is not possible to uniquely define a metric that captures the different impacts of emissions of substances with widely disparate atmospheric lifetimes, which leads to a wide range of possible index values. We examine the sensitivity of emissions and climate outcomes to the value of the index used to aggregate methane emissions using a technologically detailed integrated assessment model. The methane index is varied between 4 and 70, with a central value of 21, which is the 100-year GWP value currently used in policy contexts. We find that the sensitivity to index value is, at most, 10–18 % in terms of methane emissions but only 2–3 % in terms of the maximum total radiative forcing change, with larger regional emissions differences in some cases. The choice of index also affects estimates of the cost of meeting a given end of century forcing target, with total two-gas mitigation cost increasing by 7–9 % if the index is increased, and increasing in most scenarios from 4 to 23 % if the index is lowered, with a slight (1 %) decrease in total cost in one case. We find that much of the methane abatement occurs as the induced effect of CO₂ abatement rather than explicit abatement, which is one reason why climate outcomes are relatively insensitive to the index value. We also find that the near-term climate benefit of increasing the methane index is small.  相似文献   

Evolving Turbulence Realizations of Atmospheric Flow     

Sue Ellen Haupt  Andrew J. Annunzio  Kerrie J. Schmehl 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2013,149(2):197-217

A significant difference exists between estimates of contaminant atmospheric transport and dispersion calculated by an ensemble-averaged model and the turbulent details of any particular atmospheric transport and dispersion realization. In some cases, however, it is important to be able to make inferences of these realizations using ensemble-averaged models. It is possible to make such inferences if there are sensors in the field to report contaminant concentration observations. Any information determined about the atmospheric transport and dispersion realization can then be assimilated into a forecast model. This approach can enhance the accuracy of the atmospheric transport and dispersion forecast of a particular event. This work adopts that approach and reports on a genetic algorithm used to optimize the variational problem. Given contaminant sensor measurements and a transport and dispersion model, one can back-calculate unknown source and meteorological parameters. In this case, we demonstrate the dynamic recovery of unknown meteorological variables, including the transport variables that comprise the “outer variability” (wind speed and wind direction) and the dispersion variables that comprise the “inner variability” (contaminant spread). The optimization problem is set up in an Eulerian grid space, where the comparison of the concentration field variable between the predictions and the observations forms the cost function. The transport and dispersion parameters, which are determined from the optimization, are in Lagrangian space. This calculation is applied to continuous and instantaneous releases in a horizontally homogeneous wind field such as that observed during traditional transport and dispersion field experiments. The method proves to be successful at recovering the unknown transport and dispersion parameters for a numerical experiment.  相似文献   

Coasts, water levels, and climate change: A Great Lakes perspective     

Andrew D. Gronewold  Vincent Fortin  Brent Lofgren  Anne Clites  Craig A. Stow  Frank Quinn 《Climatic change》2013,120(4):697-711

The North American Laurentian Great Lakes hold nearly 20 % of the earth’s unfrozen fresh surface water and have a length of coastline, and a coastal population, comparable to frequently-studied marine coasts. The surface water elevations of the Great Lakes, in particular, are an ideal metric for understanding impacts of climate change on large hydrologic systems, and for assessing adaption measures for absorbing those impacts. In light of the importance of the Great Lakes to the North American and global economies, the Great Lakes and the surrounding region also serve as an important benchmark for hydroclimate research, and offer an example of successful adaptive management under changing climate conditions. Here, we communicate some of the important lessons to be learned from the Great Lakes by examining how the coastline, water level, and water budget dynamics of the Great Lakes relate to other large coastal systems, along with implications for water resource management strategies and climate scenario-derived projections of future conditions. This improved understanding fills a critical gap in freshwater and marine global coastal research.  相似文献   

A note on climate change adaptation for seaports: a challenge for global ports, a challenge for global society     

Austin H. Becker  Michele Acciaro  Regina Asariotis  Edgard Cabrera  Laurent Cretegny  Philippe Crist  Miguel Esteban  Andrew Mather  Steve Messner  Susumu Naruse  Adolf K. Y. Ng  Stefan Rahmstorf  Michael Savonis  Dong-Wook Song  Vladimir Stenek  Adonis F. Velegrakis 《Climatic change》2013,120(4):683-695

With 80 % of world trade carried by sea, seaports provide crucial linkages in global supply-chains and are essential for the ability of all countries to access global markets. Seaports are likely to be affected directly and indirectly by climatic changes, with broader implications for international trade and development. Due to their coastal location, seaports are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather events associated with increasing sea levels and tropical storm activity, as illustrated by hurricane “Sandy”. In view of their strategic role as part of the globalized trading system, adapting ports in different parts of the world to the impacts of climate change is of considerable importance. Reflecting the views of a diverse group of stakeholders with expertise in climate science, engineering, economics, policy, and port management, this essay highlights the climate change challenge for ports and suggests a way forward through the adoption of some initial measures. These include both “soft” and “hard” adaptations that may be spearheaded by individual port entities, but will require collaboration and support from a broad range of public and private sector stakeholders and from society at large. In particular, the essay highlights a need to shift to more holistic planning, investment and operation.  相似文献   

Correspondence: Comment on “a parametrization of solar energy disposition in the climate system” (Wang et al., 2004)     

Andrew J. Weaver  Michael Eby 《大气与海洋》2013,51(4):293-294

  相似文献   

Geostrophic Adjustment Problems in a Polar Basin     

Maria V. Luneva  Andrew J. Willmott  Miguel Angel Morales Maqueda 《大气与海洋》2013,51(2):134-155

The geostrophic adjustment of a homogeneous fluid in a circular basin with idealized topography is addressed using a numerical ocean circulation model and analytical process models. When the basin is rotating uniformly, the adjustment takes place via excitation of boundary propagating waves and when topography is present, via topographic Rossby waves. In the numerically derived solution, the waves are damped because of bottom friction, and a quasi-steady geostrophically balanced state emerges that subsequently spins-down on a long time scale. On the f-plane, numerical quasi-steady state solutions are attained well before the system's mechanical energy is entirely dissipated by friction. It is demonstrated that the adjusted states emerging in a circular basin with a step escarpment or a top hat ridge, centred on a line of symmetry, are equivalent to that in a uniform depth semicircular basin, for a given initial condition. These quasi-steady solutions agree well with linear analytical solutions for the latter case in the inviscid limit.

On the polar plane, the high latitude equivalent to the β-plane, no quasi-steady adjusted state emerges from the adjustment process. At intermediate time scales, after the fast Poincaré and Kelvin waves are damped by friction, the solutions take the form of steady-state adjusted solutions on the f-plane. At longer time scales, planetary waves control the flow evolution. An interesting property of planetary waves on a polar plane is a nearly zero eastward group velocity for the waves with a radial mode higher than two and the resulting formation of eddy-like small-scale barotropic structures that remain trapped near the western side of topographic features.

RÉSUMÉ?Traduit par la rédaction] Nous étudions l'ajustement géostrophique d'un fluide homogène dans un bassin circulaire ayant une topographie idéalisée à l'aide d'un modèle numérique de circulation océanique et de modèles analytiques de processus. Quand le bassin est en rotation uniforme, l'ajustement se fait par l'excitation d'ondes de propagation aux limites, et en présence de topographie, par des ondes de Rossby topographiques. Dans la solution numériquement dérivée, les ondes sont amorties à cause frottement contre le fond, et un état quasi-stable géostrophiquement équilibré s’établit pour ensuite décélérer sur une longue période de temps. Sur le plan f, les solutions numériques d’états quasi-stables sont atteintes bien avant que l’énergie du système mécanique soit entièrement dissipée par le frottement. Nous démontrons que les états ajustés apparaissant dans un bassin circulaire avec un accore en forme de marche ou une crête en forme de merlon, centrés sur une ligne de symétrie, sont équivalents à ceux d'un bassin semi-circulaire de profondeur uniforme pour une condition initiale donnée. Les solutions quasi-stables s'accordent bien avec les solutions analytiques linéaires pour le dernier cas dans la limite de la non-viscosité.

Sur le plan polaire, la haute latitude équivalente au plan β, le processus d'ajustement n'aboutit à aucun état ajusté quasi-stable. Aux échelles de temps intermédiaires, après l'amortissement des ondes rapides de Poincaré et Kelvin par le frottement, les solutions prennent la forme de solutions ajustées d’états stables sur le plan f. Aux échelles de temps plus longues, les ondes planétaires déterminent l’évolution de l’écoulement. Une propriété intéressante des ondes planétaires sur un plan polaire est une vitesse de groupe presque nulle vers l'est pour les ondes ayant un mode radial plus grand que deux et la formation résultante de structures barotropiques de petite échelle de type remous qui demeurent emprisonnées près du bord ouest des caractéristiques topographiques.  相似文献   

Climate change and infectious diseases: Can we meet the needs for better prediction?     

Xavier Rodó  Mercedes Pascual  Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes  Alexander Gershunov  Dáithí A. Stone  Filippo Giorgi  Peter J. Hudson  James Kinter  Miquel-Àngel Rodríguez-Arias  Nils Ch. Stenseth  David Alonso  Javier García-Serrano  Andrew P. Dobson 《Climatic change》2013,118(3-4):625-640

The next generation of climate-driven, disease prediction models will most likely require a mechanistically based, dynamical framework that parameterizes key processes at a variety of locations. Over the next two decades, consensus climate predictions make it possible to produce forecasts for a number of important infectious diseases that are largely independent of the uncertainty of longer-term emissions scenarios. In particular, the role of climate in the modulation of seasonal disease transmission needs to be unravelled from the complex dynamics resulting from the interaction of transmission with herd immunity and intervention measures that depend upon previous burdens of infection. Progress is also needed to solve the mismatch between climate projections and disease projections at the scale of public health interventions. In the time horizon of seasons to years, early warning systems should benefit from current developments on multi-model ensemble climate prediction systems, particularly in areas where high skill levels of climate models coincide with regions where large epidemics take place. A better understanding of the role of climate extremes on infectious diseases is urgently needed.  相似文献   

Oil prices and energy technology innovation: An empirical analysis     

Andrew Cheon  Johannes Urpelainen 《Global Environmental Change》2012,22(2):407-417

To achieve environmental sustainability and reduce their vulnerability to oil shocks, countries can develop new energy technologies. Technological advances reduce the cost of structural changes in the energy economy, and thus also increase the political feasibility of such changes. But what explains international variation in the form and quality of energy technology innovation? We build on previous theories and offer an integrated account: increasing oil prices reinforce existing sectoral innovation systems, both politically and economically, thus allowing public policymakers and private entrepreneurs to profitably invest in new energy technologies. We test this theoretical argument against data on public R&D expenditures and patents in the domain of renewable energy technology for industrialized countries from 1989 to 2007. We find strong support for the interactive hypothesis. Thus, we contribute to literatures on (i) domestic responses to international shocks, (ii) environmental sustainability and energy security, and (iii) the political economy of technology innovation.  相似文献   

Open-system chemical behavior in deep Wilcox Group mudstones,Texas Gulf Coast,USA     

Ruarri J. Day-Stirrat  Kitty L. Milliken  Shirley P. Dutton  Robert G. Loucks  Stephen Hillier  Andrew C. Aplin  Anja M. Schleicher 《Marine and Petroleum Geology》2010

Wilcox Group mudstones have been mechanically and geochemically transformed over a temperature range of 20–200 °C. Our research controlled for provenance and age by sampling from five wells, parallel to the paleodepositional axis, all within the Houston delta system. Across the sampled depths, mudstone porosity has been reduced from ∼25 to <10% and bulk mineralogical change as documented by quantitative X-ray diffraction includes decreases in quartz, K-feldspar and kaolinite content whereas illite + illite − smectite, chlorite, and plagioclase increase. These mineral transformations transfer elements at a scale of less than 1 mm from one mineralogical form to another, however, X-ray fluorescence data suggest that among major elements only Al₂O₃ and TiO₂ are fully conserved within the system (trace-element ZrO₂ is also conserved). K₂O has been added to and SiO₂ released from the Wilcox Group mudstones. Cathodoluminescence and secondary electron imaging did not find this SiO₂ locally precipitated. We, therefore, document an open-system geochemical behavior.  相似文献   

How U.S. ocean policy and market power can reform the coral reef wildlife trade     

Brian N. Tissot  Barbara A. Best  Eric H. Borneman  Andrew W. Bruckner  Cara H. Cooper  Heather D’Agnes  Timothy P. Fitzgerald  Amanda Leland  Susan Lieberman  Amy Mathews Amos  Rashid Sumaila  Teresa M. Telecky  Frazer McGilvray  Brian J. Plankis  Andrew L. Rhyne  Glynnis G. Roberts  Benjamin Starkhouse  Todd C. Stevenson 《Marine Policy》2010

As the world’s largest importer of marine ornamental species for the aquaria, curio, home décor, and jewelry industries, the United States has an opportunity to leverage its considerable market power to promote more sustainable trade and reduce the effects of ornamental trade stress on coral reefs worldwide. Evidence indicates that collection of some coral reef animals for these trades has caused virtual elimination of local populations, major changes in age structure, and promotion of collection practices that destroy reef habitats. Management and enforcement of collection activities in major source countries such as Indonesia and the Philippines remain weak. Strengthening US trade laws and enforcement capabilities combined with increasing consumer and industry demand for responsible conservation can create strong incentives for improving management in source countries. This is particularly important in light of the March 2010 failure of the parties to the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES) to take action on key groups of corals.  相似文献